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May 20, 2008


Fabricio Luiz Bronzatti

Indeed, it will be hard to reach that level in 2008.
YTD (End March)Brazil total liquid production:
Currently YTD we have average:
Oil: 1.785 million b/d
Biodiesel: 0.014 million b/d
Forecast Ethanol for 2008: 0.56 million b/d
This gives us 2.36 million b/d.
Petrobras said we will reach 1.95 million b/d oil production, that leads to 2.52 million b/d. So no way to reach 3 million b/d total liquid production in 2008. How we ask EIA what is going on now or will happen June/July (if it is a little delayed) that causes that production rise?
But I see the scenario changing for late 2009, where the today investments on new production will start go live.

Fabricio Luiz Bronzatti

One thing else, now regarding indexes calculation. In Brazil we have two inflation indexes, one measure by an Government agency and another one by a independent institution, guess what, the one measured by the government agency is always lower than the last one, some times half of it.
Some time ago the Brazilian congressman voted a update on their salary, and you would think they use the government index, no!, they pick up the index measured by the independent institution, so, yes, sometimes indexes are used just to benefit something or someone and creates economic picture that is not precise.

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