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May 13, 2008


Fabricio Luiz Bronzatti

I wrote an article regarding Brazil Energy outlook for the next 20 years, and regarding oil production, not counting on Tupi and Carioca field (this means: with currently oil fields only and forecast investments on it) according to the study, Brazil will flat production in 2015 with 3 million b/d. But just saw on Petrobras forecast that this year/beginning next year forecast for the production will be 1.95 million b/d, revised down. That is 6% less than the forecast, this is due to equipment delivery delays and problems on Golfinho platform production.
Also based on the forecast data we can peak oil export in 2015 with 1 million b/d.
Again all this forecast are nothing relying on Tupi and Carioca field. If that confirms a big reserve and economically viable and feasible, then it will be a whole different ball game.
Currently also our efforts are on Ethanol, Cosan, a big ethanol company just bough Exxon Mobil assets in Brazil, that can improve even more our Ethanol distribution infrastructure, but the today's concern I believe is how much the ethanol have a good EROEI.
But I really bet, in the short-term, that our best bet is on the natural gas production, according to the forecast that have a good possibility to grow 50% in the next 6/7 years, but a lot efforts are still needed on distribution infrastructure mainly, that is a bottleneck today.


thank you this helped out alot good job!

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